Self driving cars

[the_edge]

In how many years do you think totally self driving cars will be a reality?

I heard in the news that Uber was testing semi-autonomous cars in PA, and they expect to go driverless in 5 years (!?! ). I feel that's too soon, what do you think?

It's also pretty weird, I though Uber's thing was not owning the cars because of the associated costs? Now all of a sudden they'd want to own a fleet? lol

[tut]

i like to not think about that

[thewalrus]

Man, they're going to be here in no time flat It'll be horrible. But with the advances that have been made, and the amount of money being thrown at this thing... I bet self driving cars are pretty common on highways in 5 or so years. And we see the highest end models being debuted in some cities. 15 - 20 years and they'll be common.

Say goodbye to reasonable insurance rates for regular drivers.

[sombrio]

Too soon.

I wrote a short story about the first action for intentional wrongful death based on a self-driving car. You can read it if you want. I tried to set the entire thing in closing argument, which was interesting to me as a lawyer, but I got a lot of comments that it doesn't stand on its own and there's too much telling and not enough showing. Might still be interesting to a lawyer. Anyway, I set it in about 2027-2028, with the cars involved being 2027 and 2028 models. I had a lot of good debates and discussions on this. The argument that finally swayed me was that 2027 seems really close to us right now, but then again, it's just 11 years away, and we didn't have smartphones or most modern social media in 2005. IMO, a story from 2005 about the dangers of smartphones set in 2016 seems almost quaint by today's standards.

I think the technology is mostly there right now, so figure another 5 years to fully develop it and for components to come down in price, which would put us at prototypes in the early 2020s, another few years for testing and marketing and public acceptance, and mass market models appearing in the late 2020s... yeah, I don't see any other way it could happen, really. 2027 it is!

[thewalrus]

[sombrio]

[tut]

The missus is thinking of moving to a place that would end up with me having a super mega boring 1 hour commute on an awfully boring bit of highway. Sounds good for this it's like a free taxi.

For all other driving, id rather drive


Also sombrio, what's wrong with the triumph?

[thewalrus]

[sombrio]

Wally: Don't you think the decreased likelihood of accidents will offset the increased probability of being found to be at fault? Maybe this is just because I live in Southern California, but I would feel safer if my fellow drivers were replaced with CPUs. Drivers here are just batshit awful. Like, "almost run you off the road and then yell at you about it" awful. (It doesn't help that I live right next to what is apparently one of the few roundabouts in the entire United States.) I feel like self-driving cars would just be easier to avoid, if anything. They'll probably be smoother, more predictable, and less erratic. My short story notwithstanding, I think the vast majority of the time a self-driving car will be safer to share the road with than the typical LA idiot driver.

Tut: I need a new fan clutch and it's $170+ and money has been tight this summer. I'm a teacher/tutor and summers kind of suck. Hopefully with the school year starting and getting some work again I'll be able to buy a new one pretty soon. Makes me sad to have this beautiful classic car just sitting with its cooling system taken apart.

[thewalrus]

[Swerve]

The self driving cars will take evasive action to avoid we morons who currently crash into other morons without the reaction times of computers.

[Swerve]

Anyway, I think automated cars taking over is incredibly close thanks to the possibility of retrofitting the tech.
The silver lining for enthusiasts is that there will be a period before driving is banned where people who don't want to drive will be taking cheap Johnny Cabs instead. Fleets of taxis operating 24/7 without the priciect component (the human driver) are going to reduce traffic congestion and operate in the most efficient manner, rather than the current stupid scenario.

Anyway, having just returned from Europe, I've finally realised that skill levels are similar in all countries - it's simply driver attitudes that vary wildly.
Also of note, Portugal has the world's most perfect roads (excepting the occassional cobblestoned village with houses barely clearing the mirrors on each side). It is amazing.

[tut]

Just wondering.. aren't you supposed to keep an eye on the road, even if the car is fully autonomous? That would mean I couldn't sleep while the car is driving me to work? That defeats the purpose a bit :/

[thewalrus]

[the_edge]

[thewalrus]

[thewalrus]

[sombrio]

Wally, I love ya bro but there is no way I can possibly not say you're wrong about Californians being good drivers. Despite the stats I'm going to cite in a paragraph.

I think it's true that it's more the attitudes that are different, but people here drive with an alarming casualness. Doing 80 tailgating without paying attention is the norm. I don't doubt that drivers in Canada have their own infuriating habits, but I found it absolutely incredible to say that it's some refreshing change and/or that it's laughable that I think it's bad here.

I didn't have any data offhand, but I was genuinely shocked so I decided to google it. I found NHTSA statistics (http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx) that California is below the national fatality rate per mile driven.

Like a good American, I'm going to argue against fact (apparently). Maybe it looks worse if you adjust for weather, or for average speed of travel. I don't know. I find it hard to believe that Californians are better-than-average drivers in any sense of the word, and I hope someone will back me up on it being at least a thing to bitch about.

I've driven between Seattle and LA several times. I think it's worse here. People are more decisive but they don't pay attention and make stupid decisions. In Chicago people are aggressive but at least they sort of know what they're doing.

I don't get it...

[thewalrus]

[thewalrus]

Not to put too fine a point on how damn bad / aggressive Edmonton drivers are. But I was just rear-ended, intentionally!!, by a driver when I was waiting at a yield sign. It was a gentle bump, no damage, but holy blistering hell-fuck!