Self driving cars

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Self driving cars

Postby the_edge » Fri Aug 26, 2016 11:48 pm

In how many years do you think totally self driving cars will be a reality?

I heard in the news that Uber was testing semi-autonomous cars in PA, and they expect to go driverless in 5 years (!?! :shock: ). I feel that's too soon, what do you think?

It's also pretty weird, I though Uber's thing was not owning the cars because of the associated costs? Now all of a sudden they'd want to own a fleet? lol
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby tut » Sat Aug 27, 2016 10:02 am

i like to not think about that
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:47 pm

Man, they're going to be here in no time flat It'll be horrible. But with the advances that have been made, and the amount of money being thrown at this thing... I bet self driving cars are pretty common on highways in 5 or so years. And we see the highest end models being debuted in some cities. 15 - 20 years and they'll be common.

Say goodbye to reasonable insurance rates for regular drivers.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby sombrio » Mon Aug 29, 2016 6:26 pm

Too soon.

I wrote a short story about the first action for intentional wrongful death based on a self-driving car. You can read it if you want. I tried to set the entire thing in closing argument, which was interesting to me as a lawyer, but I got a lot of comments that it doesn't stand on its own and there's too much telling and not enough showing. Might still be interesting to a lawyer. Anyway, I set it in about 2027-2028, with the cars involved being 2027 and 2028 models. I had a lot of good debates and discussions on this. The argument that finally swayed me was that 2027 seems really close to us right now, but then again, it's just 11 years away, and we didn't have smartphones or most modern social media in 2005. IMO, a story from 2005 about the dangers of smartphones set in 2016 seems almost quaint by today's standards.

I think the technology is mostly there right now, so figure another 5 years to fully develop it and for components to come down in price, which would put us at prototypes in the early 2020s, another few years for testing and marketing and public acceptance, and mass market models appearing in the late 2020s... yeah, I don't see any other way it could happen, really. 2027 it is!
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:13 pm

sombrio wrote:Too soon.

I wrote a short story about the first action for intentional wrongful death based on a self-driving car. You can read it if you want. I tried to set the entire thing in closing argument, which was interesting to me as a lawyer, but I got a lot of comments that it doesn't stand on its own and there's too much telling and not enough showing. Might still be interesting to a lawyer. Anyway, I set it in about 2027-2028, with the cars involved being 2027 and 2028 models. I had a lot of good debates and discussions on this. The argument that finally swayed me was that 2027 seems really close to us right now, but then again, it's just 11 years away, and we didn't have smartphones or most modern social media in 2005. IMO, a story from 2005 about the dangers of smartphones set in 2016 seems almost quaint by today's standards.

I think the technology is mostly there right now, so figure another 5 years to fully develop it and for components to come down in price, which would put us at prototypes in the early 2020s, another few years for testing and marketing and public acceptance, and mass market models appearing in the late 2020s... yeah, I don't see any other way it could happen, really. 2027 it is!


That's 10 years away. I better get to buying all the cool cars I want.

A auto-driven Mustang is going to suck.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby sombrio » Tue Aug 30, 2016 3:28 am

thewalrus wrote:
sombrio wrote:Too soon.

I wrote a short story about the first action for intentional wrongful death based on a self-driving car. You can read it if you want. I tried to set the entire thing in closing argument, which was interesting to me as a lawyer, but I got a lot of comments that it doesn't stand on its own and there's too much telling and not enough showing. Might still be interesting to a lawyer. Anyway, I set it in about 2027-2028, with the cars involved being 2027 and 2028 models. I had a lot of good debates and discussions on this. The argument that finally swayed me was that 2027 seems really close to us right now, but then again, it's just 11 years away, and we didn't have smartphones or most modern social media in 2005. IMO, a story from 2005 about the dangers of smartphones set in 2016 seems almost quaint by today's standards.

I think the technology is mostly there right now, so figure another 5 years to fully develop it and for components to come down in price, which would put us at prototypes in the early 2020s, another few years for testing and marketing and public acceptance, and mass market models appearing in the late 2020s... yeah, I don't see any other way it could happen, really. 2027 it is!


That's 10 years away. I better get to buying all the cool cars I want.

A auto-driven Mustang is going to suck.


I very much doubt that driver-cars will be outlawed within our lifetimes, but I've been wrong before about (the horrors of) what our government is willing to do. So we still have the rest of our lives to have fun with cars. Thank God, because my Triumph is undriveable right now and I have to save up for parts.

Do you think 11 years away is unrealistic?
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby tut » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:49 am

The missus is thinking of moving to a place that would end up with me having a super mega boring 1 hour commute on an awfully boring bit of highway. Sounds good for this :P it's like a free taxi.

For all other driving, id rather drive


Also sombrio, what's wrong with the triumph?
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Tue Aug 30, 2016 4:07 pm

sombrio wrote:
thewalrus wrote:
sombrio wrote:Too soon.

I wrote a short story about the first action for intentional wrongful death based on a self-driving car. You can read it if you want. I tried to set the entire thing in closing argument, which was interesting to me as a lawyer, but I got a lot of comments that it doesn't stand on its own and there's too much telling and not enough showing. Might still be interesting to a lawyer. Anyway, I set it in about 2027-2028, with the cars involved being 2027 and 2028 models. I had a lot of good debates and discussions on this. The argument that finally swayed me was that 2027 seems really close to us right now, but then again, it's just 11 years away, and we didn't have smartphones or most modern social media in 2005. IMO, a story from 2005 about the dangers of smartphones set in 2016 seems almost quaint by today's standards.

I think the technology is mostly there right now, so figure another 5 years to fully develop it and for components to come down in price, which would put us at prototypes in the early 2020s, another few years for testing and marketing and public acceptance, and mass market models appearing in the late 2020s... yeah, I don't see any other way it could happen, really. 2027 it is!


That's 10 years away. I better get to buying all the cool cars I want.

A auto-driven Mustang is going to suck.


I very much doubt that driver-cars will be outlawed within our lifetimes, but I've been wrong before about (the horrors of) what our government is willing to do. So we still have the rest of our lives to have fun with cars. Thank God, because my Triumph is undriveable right now and I have to save up for parts.

Do you think 11 years away is unrealistic?


I don't think they'll be outlawed. Well, maybe not. But I do think they'll be prohibitively expensive. When 30 or 40 or 50 % of cars on the street are driverless cars that perfectly obey all traffic laws, my guess is you'll essentially be deemed at fault if you're driving a car and you're in an accident with one. Can you imagine insurance prices where it's an essentially automatic 'at-fault' accident in the event that you collide with one in very two cars on the road?

In other words, the free market will take care of driven cars well before the government ever has to. I'm sure the government will eventually have to fire the final shot that puts an end to driven cars - in 30 or 40 or 50 years. maybe longer. But that'll be nominal legislative action.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby sombrio » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:31 pm

Wally: Don't you think the decreased likelihood of accidents will offset the increased probability of being found to be at fault? Maybe this is just because I live in Southern California, but I would feel safer if my fellow drivers were replaced with CPUs. Drivers here are just batshit awful. Like, "almost run you off the road and then yell at you about it" awful. (It doesn't help that I live right next to what is apparently one of the few roundabouts in the entire United States.) I feel like self-driving cars would just be easier to avoid, if anything. They'll probably be smoother, more predictable, and less erratic. My short story notwithstanding, I think the vast majority of the time a self-driving car will be safer to share the road with than the typical LA idiot driver.

Tut: I need a new fan clutch and it's $170+ and money has been tight this summer. I'm a teacher/tutor and summers kind of suck. Hopefully with the school year starting and getting some work again I'll be able to buy a new one pretty soon. Makes me sad to have this beautiful classic car just sitting with its cooling system taken apart.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:30 pm

sombrio wrote:Wally: Don't you think the decreased likelihood of accidents will offset the increased probability of being found to be at fault? Maybe this is just because I live in Southern California, but I would feel safer if my fellow drivers were replaced with CPUs. Drivers here are just batshit awful. Like, "almost run you off the road and then yell at you about it" awful. (It doesn't help that I live right next to what is apparently one of the few roundabouts in the entire United States.) I feel like self-driving cars would just be easier to avoid, if anything. They'll probably be smoother, more predictable, and less erratic. My short story notwithstanding, I think the vast majority of the time a self-driving car will be safer to share the road with than the typical LA idiot driver.

Tut: I need a new fan clutch and it's $170+ and money has been tight this summer. I'm a teacher/tutor and summers kind of suck. Hopefully with the school year starting and getting some work again I'll be able to buy a new one pretty soon. Makes me sad to have this beautiful classic car just sitting with its cooling system taken apart.


You find drivers in LA awful? That's actually pretty hilarious. The times I've driven down there, I've found them substantially better then the drivers in Alberta (and most of Canada, for that matter). They're much better at going with the flow of traffic. Far more likely to use turn signals. Far more likely to let you merge (as opposed to actively accelerating to ensure you don't get ahead of them). And far less likely to tailgate. Obviously they aren't perfect, but I found driving in LA (and all along the Pacific Coast) to be a far less hair-raising experience than in Alberta.

But to the point - I honestly don't think that a decrease in the number of driven cars will decrease the likelihood of an accident to the point that it would offset the increased probability of liability. Mostly because the risk of being at fault just goes up SO much. Especially if there's a substantial number of auto-driving cars out there.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby Swerve » Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:19 pm

The self driving cars will take evasive action to avoid we morons who currently crash into other morons without the reaction times of computers.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby Swerve » Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:31 pm

Anyway, I think automated cars taking over is incredibly close thanks to the possibility of retrofitting the tech.
The silver lining for enthusiasts is that there will be a period before driving is banned where people who don't want to drive will be taking cheap Johnny Cabs instead. Fleets of taxis operating 24/7 without the priciect component (the human driver) are going to reduce traffic congestion and operate in the most efficient manner, rather than the current stupid scenario.

Anyway, having just returned from Europe, I've finally realised that skill levels are similar in all countries - it's simply driver attitudes that vary wildly.
Also of note, Portugal has the world's most perfect roads (excepting the occassional cobblestoned village with houses barely clearing the mirrors on each side). It is amazing.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby tut » Sun Sep 04, 2016 12:04 am

Just wondering.. aren't you supposed to keep an eye on the road, even if the car is fully autonomous? That would mean I couldn't sleep while the car is driving me to work? That defeats the purpose a bit :/
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Tue Sep 06, 2016 12:08 am

Swerve wrote:
Anyway, having just returned from Europe, I've finally realised that skill levels are similar in all countries - it's simply driver attitudes that vary wildly.
Also of note, Portugal has the world's most perfect roads (excepting the occassional cobblestoned village with houses barely clearing the mirrors on each side). It is amazing.


This is about right. I was thinking something similar on the way south from Edmonton to Lethbridge, this weekend. It's not that the drivers here are technically worse than anywhere else. It's that they're so aggressive. To wit, I was in the right hand lane of a twinned highway. No one in the fast lane. I'm going 5 kph over the speed limit. And I get passed by a gravel truck, driving on the shoulder. He wasn't merging in from on on ramp either.
Last edited by thewalrus on Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby the_edge » Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:21 am

thewalrus wrote:
sombrio wrote:Too soon.

I wrote a short story about the first action for intentional wrongful death based on a self-driving car. You can read it if you want. I tried to set the entire thing in closing argument, which was interesting to me as a lawyer, but I got a lot of comments that it doesn't stand on its own and there's too much telling and not enough showing. Might still be interesting to a lawyer. Anyway, I set it in about 2027-2028, with the cars involved being 2027 and 2028 models. I had a lot of good debates and discussions on this. The argument that finally swayed me was that 2027 seems really close to us right now, but then again, it's just 11 years away, and we didn't have smartphones or most modern social media in 2005. IMO, a story from 2005 about the dangers of smartphones set in 2016 seems almost quaint by today's standards.

I think the technology is mostly there right now, so figure another 5 years to fully develop it and for components to come down in price, which would put us at prototypes in the early 2020s, another few years for testing and marketing and public acceptance, and mass market models appearing in the late 2020s... yeah, I don't see any other way it could happen, really. 2027 it is!


That's 10 years away. I better get to buying all the cool cars I want.

A auto-driven Mustang is going to suck.


I think that if self-driving cars become the norm, the car as we know it dissapear... what I mean with this is no Mustangs, Camaros, S-class Mercedes, etc. Why? Cars have a personality (e.g. Corvettes are fast, a bit rough, have noisier engines, etc, Lincolns are soft, smooth, not that good in corners but very comfy, etc), but all of that stops mattering once a car is self driving, it's not like you will have fast and slow cars because they all drive at steady speeds. Handling stops mattering too, since you're steering. Ride will probably be soft all around (think 80's cadillac), since there is no need to have sporty suspensions or anything like that now.

Cars would stop being called Mustang, Corvette,etc and the new "products" would be more akin to appliances, especially laptops and apple gadgets. Sad huh?
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:18 pm

the_edge wrote:
thewalrus wrote:
sombrio wrote:Too soon.

I wrote a short story about the first action for intentional wrongful death based on a self-driving car. You can read it if you want. I tried to set the entire thing in closing argument, which was interesting to me as a lawyer, but I got a lot of comments that it doesn't stand on its own and there's too much telling and not enough showing. Might still be interesting to a lawyer. Anyway, I set it in about 2027-2028, with the cars involved being 2027 and 2028 models. I had a lot of good debates and discussions on this. The argument that finally swayed me was that 2027 seems really close to us right now, but then again, it's just 11 years away, and we didn't have smartphones or most modern social media in 2005. IMO, a story from 2005 about the dangers of smartphones set in 2016 seems almost quaint by today's standards.

I think the technology is mostly there right now, so figure another 5 years to fully develop it and for components to come down in price, which would put us at prototypes in the early 2020s, another few years for testing and marketing and public acceptance, and mass market models appearing in the late 2020s... yeah, I don't see any other way it could happen, really. 2027 it is!


That's 10 years away. I better get to buying all the cool cars I want.

A auto-driven Mustang is going to suck.


I think that if self-driving cars become the norm, the car as we know it dissapear... what I mean with this is no Mustangs, Camaros, S-class Mercedes, etc. Why? Cars have a personality (e.g. Corvettes are fast, a bit rough, have noisier engines, etc, Lincolns are soft, smooth, not that good in corners but very comfy, etc), but all of that stops mattering once a car is self driving, it's not like you will have fast and slow cars because they all drive at steady speeds. Handling stops mattering too, since you're steering. Ride will probably be soft all around (think 80's cadillac), since there is no need to have sporty suspensions or anything like that now.

Cars would stop being called Mustang, Corvette,etc and the new "products" would be more akin to appliances, especially laptops and apple gadgets. Sad huh?


That's right. THey'd be just like phones. You could get any one of a number of different models that do exactly the same thing. But with a different look, feel, color and image. But they wouldn't be different. The architecture would remain substantially the same. I'm sure a wide variety of aps will be available for download, however.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:20 pm

tut wrote:Just wondering.. aren't you supposed to keep an eye on the road, even if the car is fully autonomous? That would mean I couldn't sleep while the car is driving me to work? That defeats the purpose a bit :/


That's only for the first transitional technologies. 10 years after it becomes common you'll have people sleeping, playing video games (Need for Speed!), engaging in a wide variety of adult activities and so on.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby sombrio » Thu Sep 08, 2016 3:55 am

Wally, I love ya bro but there is no way I can possibly not say you're wrong about Californians being good drivers. Despite the stats I'm going to cite in a paragraph.

I think it's true that it's more the attitudes that are different, but people here drive with an alarming casualness. Doing 80 tailgating without paying attention is the norm. I don't doubt that drivers in Canada have their own infuriating habits, but I found it absolutely incredible to say that it's some refreshing change and/or that it's laughable that I think it's bad here.

I didn't have any data offhand, but I was genuinely shocked so I decided to google it. I found NHTSA statistics (http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx) that California is below the national fatality rate per mile driven.

Like a good American, I'm going to argue against fact (apparently). Maybe it looks worse if you adjust for weather, or for average speed of travel. I don't know. I find it hard to believe that Californians are better-than-average drivers in any sense of the word, and I hope someone will back me up on it being at least a thing to bitch about.

I've driven between Seattle and LA several times. I think it's worse here. People are more decisive but they don't pay attention and make stupid decisions. In Chicago people are aggressive but at least they sort of know what they're doing.

I don't get it...
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Thu Sep 08, 2016 5:34 am

sombrio wrote:Wally, I love ya bro but there is no way I can possibly not say you're wrong about Californians being good drivers. Despite the stats I'm going to cite in a paragraph.

I think it's true that it's more the attitudes that are different, but people here drive with an alarming casualness. Doing 80 tailgating without paying attention is the norm. I don't doubt that drivers in Canada have their own infuriating habits, but I found it absolutely incredible to say that it's some refreshing change and/or that it's laughable that I think it's bad here.

I didn't have any data offhand, but I was genuinely shocked so I decided to google it. I found NHTSA statistics (http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx) that California is below the national fatality rate per mile driven.

Like a good American, I'm going to argue against fact (apparently). Maybe it looks worse if you adjust for weather, or for average speed of travel. I don't know. I find it hard to believe that Californians are better-than-average drivers in any sense of the word, and I hope someone will back me up on it being at least a thing to bitch about.

I've driven between Seattle and LA several times. I think it's worse here. People are more decisive but they don't pay attention and make stupid decisions. In Chicago people are aggressive but at least they sort of know what they're doing.

I don't get it...


I honestly think you're wrong on this man. And I find it's a common habit of Californians (and I know a lot of them) to be self effacing about their state. The drivers. The pollution. The ever-impending 'big one'. The celebrity culture, etc. But all things considered it is one of the best states in the Union (at least in my opinion).

Look I've driven all over Canada and in a lot of States in the US. As have a lot of my friends here, and from California. Most agree with me. I had two friends of mine come up from LA / Ventura for our wedding north of Edmonton. Like you, they were plenty self-effacing about the quality of Californian drivers. Until they spent time on the roads here. They were shocked. Genuinely shocked at the aggression, and the, frankly, bad, spastic, erratic driving. Reckless driving. They confirmed what I felt I knew from my own experiences. And let me tell you - Alberta is not unique - I've found the driving habits across the prairie provinces are similar. I don't know if it's as a result of a cavalier approach taken when learning to drive in rural areas - that translates horribly to urban centres. That's my best theory.
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Re: Self driving cars

Postby thewalrus » Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:28 pm

Not to put too fine a point on how damn bad / aggressive Edmonton drivers are. But I was just rear-ended, intentionally!!, by a driver when I was waiting at a yield sign. It was a gentle bump, no damage, but holy blistering hell-fuck!
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